21 December 2014

Metaphorical Correlations Among 'Paranormal' Cases

This article offers some examples of recurring metaphors that can be found among diverse case studies involving 'paranormal' or 'unexplained phenomena,' encompassing clairvoyance and diverse cases of transcendental communication, including Electronic Voice Phenomena reported by Friedrich Jürgenson, an incident from contemporary spiritual medium Rosemary Altea's autobiography, a Leslie Flint Direct Voice audio recording, Ouija board communication in the 'Messages from Michael' case, Instrumental Transcommunication chronicled by Anabela Cardoso, an event in the career of physical medium Alec Harris, and an incident reported as chronicled in the nonfiction case study Testament.  Metaphorical parallels in these instance include an oceanic 'ship in the dark' and face masks.  The article concludes with several excerpts from the Edgar Cayce channeled reading transcripts. 
Voice Transmissions With The Deceased, an English translation of Sprechfunk mit Verstorbenen (1967) by Friedrich Jürgenson (1903 - 1987) can be read at www.worlditc.org.  Jürgenson was born in Odessa, Russia.  His early professional career in the fine arts spanned nine years of training and two years performing as a singer.  He then became a painter and his new occupation included exhibitions and traveling.  He also had done a few radio specials on cultural history with the Swedish Broadcasting Company, including a show about the end of the Tzarist empire that motivated him to research the case of Anastasia.  He was living in Stockholm in 1959 when on the morning of January 12 he set out to record birdsongs in a countryside garden.  When he listened to what had been recorded, he discovered what is now known as Electronic Voice Phenomena (EVP).  The book describes his investigation of the phenomena.  Further remarkable experiences occurred in July, as he wrote:

After some hours of concentrated listening, and getting used to the disturbing noises, a pleasant male voice started to emerge from the chaos of sounds.  The voice spoke English with deep conviction and an unusual intonation.

After a small pause the name "Churchill" was audible, then suddenly another male voice started to speak in German. Though speaking without an accent, the sentence came through ungrammatically.  The voice literally said, "Tsar-region we must springtime speak about . . ."

"Tsar-region," didn't that sound strange?  I immediately had to think about Anastasia.

"Friedrich, you're being observed . . ." added the same voice with firm emphasis.

Before the transmission ended, a sentence was thrust out very hurriedly: "Friedrich" the voice called out my name, "When you translate and interpret into German during the day, try to solve the truth every evening with the ship . . . with the ship in the dark!"

This charade-like phrase set my fantasy in motion. Though it left me puzzled, it became clear to me that the transmission was meant for me personally.
Many living well-known mediums who've written autobiographies include Rosemary Altea, John Edward, Sally Morgan and James Van Praagh.  Rosemary Altea chronicled how she came to be on a first name basis with her spirit guide while recounting the first part of her life story in The Eagle and the Rose (1995).  The beginning portion of the book is about her life in England where Altea was a divorced mother raising a ten-year-old daughter when she experienced her first unexpected trance.  It happened while she was describing her psychic experiences to a small gathering hosted by a local healer and his wife. 

The more I talked, the more I found I had to say, and then I saw it, quite naturally and quite clearly.  It was just like being in a cinema when the lights grow dim and the people all around you fade into the background.  Then the screen lights up, showing the picture bright and clear and larger than life, so all-consuming that it pulls you through the void which separates the real from the unreal, allowing you to become part of the scene being unfolded before you.

Altea recounted a vision of an ocean and an enormous gray battleship approaching.  She became aware of a lady standing on the deck wearing a gray dress with a badge and on her head was a gray bonnet that appeared similar to those seen worn by ladies of the Salvation Army.  Altea realized that the lady had no face.

I know this sounds incredible, but where her features should have been, there was none. No eyes, no nose, no mouth . . . just a blank mask.

As I watched, her arms reached out to me beseechingly, and I heard her voice, as if from nowhere, crying out for help.

The ship was sinking and just when Altea thought the vision was over, the whole thing started again "as though someone were rerunning a film."  As Altea's mediumship abilities began to develop, she was getting into bed one night and asked God to give her a sign if what she was doing was right.  The immediate response was Altea hearing what she described as "Angels — singing!"   They were singing the twenty-third psalm, "The Lord is my shepherd . . . "

Two weeks later, Altea went on her first visit to a spiritualist church in the city of Doncaster.   The following Friday, she attended another small gathering where the speaker, Mick McGuire, was a practicing healer who revealed himself to work with a spirit guide that was a Native American chief known as Red Feather.  When McGuire held her hands, she began to shake as she felt "strange and strong vibrations" run through her body.  He explained that the surge of energy was the result of his guide acknowledging her guide.  Researching the subject, she was struck by the fact that so many of these guides seemed to be American Indians.  It was something that seemed "farfetched" to her at the time.

In her book, Altea described her progress.  She participated each week in a 'circle' where she developed her mediumship abilities.  She eventually began to give psychic readings and found herself experiencing trance states.  In February 1982, her spirit guide made himself known by introducing himself speaking through her: "My name is Grey Eagle, and I am Apache."

Altea discovered that healing was an extension of her mediumship ability and today she is the founder of the Rosemary Altea Association of Healers, a charitable association based in England with patients worldwide.  To explain how this healing works, she mentioned "energy, universal . . . God . . . energy, that healing energy which a healer can 'plug' into in the same way we might use electricity, I liken it to that same electric power, unseen and intangible, but nevertheless just as real and much more powerful."
Infrared photo (leslieflint.com)
 
 
Direct Voice medium Leslie Flint's autobiography is Voices in the Dark: My Life as a Medium (1972).  In another book chronicling Flint's mediumship The Voice of Valentino (1965) by Lynn Russell, Direct Voice (disembodied) communications from an entity identifying himself as Hollywood actor Rudolph Valentino were contemplated by the author who mentioned that at times an "higher aspect" of Valentino could be distinguished.  Among the quoted communications presented by Lynn as manifesting the "higher aspect" were the following statements.
 
"We are one spirit although we are separate in ourselves, and because of that one spirit which flows through us all, we can forget ourselves; in humbleness only do we find our true selves, and in love our true service.  You are 'bodies' in a material world yet you are with me, One in Truth and Spirit.  WE ARE ALL OF THE SAME SOUL GROUP."
 

"We give you certain threads from This Side of life, certain facts connected with yourselves and your past existences, but you have to try to put them into pattern.  We help you, but it still depends on you yourselves, and by your own efforts, to make something of them."

After Rudy's discourse of December 16, 1958, the voice Lynn recognized as that of Dr. Charles Marshall was quoted: "You have received a talk . . . sermon . . . call it what you will, not from ONE, but from MANY, all flowing through the SAME CHANNEL OF SPIRIT.  All entwined one with the other into a COMPLETE WHOLE.  We work in harmony as one body of people.  That is why the work we hope to do through you can only be done when you yourselves are in harmony."

Personality variation is also noticeable upon listening to the different recordings of the Direct Voice medium's guide 'Mickey.'  The following excerpts are from "Mickey - 8402K - 44 minutes" / "Flint's guide Mickey on love and marriage," which is one of the audio recordings that may be heard at the website of The Leslie Flint Educational Trust (and at this site).  Mickey's discourse begins with his customary humorous banter with a noticeable Cockney accent yet his speech evolves into a dignified and purposeful meditation on the meaning of love.  Many familiar metaphors and terms found in diverse chronicles of transcendental communication are heard during this discourse, including words such as "unit," "brotherhood" and "peoples."

. . . [and if] people are mentally and spiritually as one, then obviously they'll be together but people don't see marriage as you do on this side.
 
 
. . . you're not exactly tied in any one direction or to any one person.  It's when you loosen the bonds and the shackles - I don't mean just marriage I'm talking about - you begin to open up and perceive that you're all part of the same Spirit.
 
 
. . . you're a mighty something in the great cosmos field . . . 
 
 
You've got to realize that you're part of a tremendous, well, something so enormous that your mind can't grasp it really but it's the same Spirit, the same Power, and everyone is part of it, a minute part, and yet can develop and become a huge part.  You must never sort of make yourself feel that you are restricted in a certain direction or with a certain one person.
 
 
All the time evolvement is taking place.  Change.  But it's so subtle.  All the time you're living in your world you're changing.  You're not now what you were yesterday completely and wholly so.
 
 
. . . the person you've known and loved is also comingling with enormous numbers of souls on this side.  They are all working together in a harmonious way not just for one person but for all humanity.
 
 
You see, over in your world it's as if you've got a facade.  And you to some extent can control that facade.  And sometimes you can say one thing and mean something else.  Sometimes you can be smiling at a person and yet deep down you're not feeling a bit like smiling.  And you're putting on a face.  People put on a face.  They have to learn how to put on a face in your world.  It's one of the tragedies of your world.  That you have to try to put on a face.  To hold yourself together.  To keep yourself whole.  ("TO")  To struggle against all sorts of things that happen that you don't even want other people to be conscious and aware of.  And then indeed I think it's true to say that to some extent everybody is living a lie.  Very few people are completely honest.  Even if they want to be they can’t be.   You see — if only you could see yourselves as we see you — and we love you for all your weaknesses.  And we love you for your strength.  And above all we love you because you're struggling.  And when a person's struggling, everyone who has a heart — and we all have that — want to help you.  We sometimes see humanity as if they're like drowning people who've been shipwrecked.  They thought they were going on a beautiful voyage and everything was going to be marvelous.  And suddenly something happens and the ship begins to go down.  And they're lost.  They can't swim.  They make the attempt and they're struggling in the water of life.  We look upon humanity as struggling to survive.  And what seemed when you started out to have been a wonderful voyage is full of disillusionments and disappointments.  Things don't turn out quite the way you think.  And it's a struggle and a fight to reach the shore.  And the shore is the realm of the spirit where you'll be welcomed with open arms.  But all the time you're struggling in the water we are there and we are trying to lift you out and to help you.  To keep your head above water.  Trying to teach you and make you realize ("THE") tremendous power of love that supports you and sustains you.  Don't get too depressed, don’t get so down. Try to realize that behind all the darkness there is the light.  Try to realize that the heat that is the sun that will come forth and illuminate the path.

A somewhat clearer recording of the tape of Mickey identified as having the topic of love and marriage is offered at http://psychictruth.info/DIRECT_VOICE_4.htm.
The 'Messages from Michael' case was profiled in a two-part article three years ago.  The book Messages from Michael (1979) recounts how a 32-year-old publicist became involved with Ouija board communication from a source quoted as having informed her group: "WE ARE AN ANCIENT ENTITY THAT COMES TO ALL WHO ASK.  OUR PURPOSE IS TO TEACH SOME UNDERSTANDING OF THE EVOLUTION ON THE PHYSICAL PLANE . . ."  After 'Michael' instructed that nurturing and food gathering are "INSTINCTIVE," the question was given: "But isn't instinct often really fear?"  This is the portion of the transcript that follows as presented in the book.

WORDS CAN BE USED AS A MASK.

A discourse followed about human fear of loss of control and of the unknown.  One of the group investigating the Ouija Board communications was described as being "concerned about the religious implications of what Michael has been saying" and was quoted as having asked:

"The Bible says that perfect love casts out all fear.  Are you saying that it doesn't?"

DO YOU THINK YOU HAVE EXPERIENCED PERFECT LOVE, EMILY?  LOVING THE CREATIVE FORCE ITSELF REQUIRES SEPARATION FROM ANY PERSONIFICATION.

Anabela Cardoso wrote about her research and experiences with Instrumental Transcommunication in Electronic Voices (2010). The career diplomat based in Spain recounted her experimentation and observations about the phenomena. 

I have tried, in this book, to convey to the reader without exaggeration the process of deep transformation and of consciousness expansion that this extraordinary life experience has brought about in me.

She recounted her great surprise upon hearing her first 'Direct Radio Voice' from the loudspeaker of an old valve radio in March 1998: "The speech was quite long and consisted of a number of sentences . . . but at the time, under the shock, I could only understand 'dificil' (difficult) and 'outro mundo' (another world).

Another DRV message in Portuguese was understood and translated to English as: "We speak from Rio do Tempo Station . . .," thus correlating with the contact source (Zeitstrom in German and Timestream in English) known to Anabela from what she had learned about the research of other investigators.  One incident described utilized "the transpicture of a mask."  Anabela wrote, ". . . the beautiful, elusive face of a woman half-covered by a sliding mask appeared recorded on the video tape."  A preceding ITC message had also included the expression "máscara de escultor" (sculptor's mask).  She "asked Rio do Tempo what the deep meaning of the mask was."  The English translation of the reply is "The mask is our way to tell you that our world unveils the truth."

Anabela commented about the Technician's voice that she had heard in some of the Harsch-Fischbacks' recordings, ". . . I suppose the high entity known as the Technician can produce many different voices. This would justify what Rio do Tempo once told me about communications with the high entity whom I longed to speak with — 'But you have spoken with him many times!'"

Considering ITC experimenters' impressions that the unseen communicators seem 'to know all their thoughts,' she concurred: "This certainly seems to be true . . ."

Anabela advised that one should avoid generalizations about ITC voices and research —

I often employ the word 'sometimes' when I speak of psychophonic events because, in my opinion, this is an important precaution.  To my knowledge, there have always been exceptions to any generalization about Instrumental Transcommunication research and its results.
As mentioned in the previous blog article "The Ectoplasmic Flying Saucer", there was an incident involving masked being at a seance of entranced physical (or materialization) medium Alec Harris in South Africa.

A tall Spirit materialised wearing a mask which covered his whole face leaving only his eyes visible.  This figure approached Hyman and taking him by the hand led him to the cabinet.  Then in a serious voice he said: "I want to tell you that flying saucers do exist, although your world is sceptical of any reports of such.  But I say to you that they will one day be an established fact, and will arrive on your planet before man destroys himself; but the time is not yet ripe."

With that he turned and disappeared into the darkness of the cabinet, only to return a few seconds later carrying a large model of a flying saucer . . .
 
Similarly, when Truman Bethurum (the topic of some previous blog articles) described his visits aboard a flying saucer he encountered a beautiful female captain just over four feet tall and men estimated as being between four feet eight inches to around five feet tall: "Their dark olive hued faces were bland and without lines or blemishes, like the skin was taut and hard over their bone structure."  He described the faces as "masklike" and being "without beard or mustache."

An incident involving a mask is chronicled in Testament (1997), the case study of my surprising spiritual awakening (Tape #5, Side #2B).  Prior to attending the funeral for Jearld Carlton Bell, I was interviewing the family and Twyla Eller described an odd incident that had occurred involving the audible voice phenomena that the family often heard. 

Once he told Mama he was going to show itself.  He said, "COME ROLL YOUR BLANKET BACK AND I'LL SHOW YOU MYSELF."  It looked like there was a body laying there and she pulled the blanket back.  There was a mask there.  Wasn't it a Halloween mask that you found after Michael told you to pull back the blanket to see what was there?  He said "HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA."
In several of the Edgar Cayce channeled reading transcripts among the many that have been preserved, the mask and ship metaphors are topics for commentary by the transcendental communicator speaking through the body of the hypnotically entranced Edgar Cayce.  In 1223-4 of October 28, 1940, a housewife received instruction about "the sojourns in the earth and their expression, their influence in the present" prior to some observations about "the abilities of the entity then in the present" with the following being stated.

42. At once the entity may ask, - as so much gain was made, why the path so often seeming uneven; oh, so rocky?

43. "BE THOU FAITHFUL UNTO THE END!"

44. Hence the meaning of the shield, the feathers, the mask; all that He has given to all.

45. Hold thou to the faith in Him.

46. As to the abilities, - the home, the young - THAT is the developing way.

47. As to the expression or outlet, - let it be in art, especially as in the decorating of china. And in the decorating, forget not the sea blues, the sea greens - as combined with nature.

48. What a beautiful pattern would be the seaweed and the greens of same!

When the housewife said: "Do I have any latent talent that should be developed?," the answer was given —

The abilities of influencing groups, as indicated.  Do not feel that self is causing a closing of possibilities; rather with the practical manner give expressions to those things that have a spiritual import; not as in a dictatorial manner - as the shield or the mask would indicate, but rather in that manner as will cause others to THINK.  For, the mind is the builder; and how oft in many is the thinking done by others!

In 900-102 of July 31, 1925, a stockbroker sought "interpretation and lessons" from two dreams he had experienced.  Here is the portion of the transcript relating to the second of these dreams.

4. (Q) Wednesday Morning, July 29, 1925, at home in Deal.  Was seated in a sort of grandstand seat on the beach and another man sat next to me.  We looked out to sea and there close to the beach was what seemed the hulk of a wrecked boat, rising and lowering in the sea.  "It is now coming mighty close to land and to us," I said to my companion.  "Yes," he nodded, "They can't pump the water out of that!"  Up and down, up and down, rising and lowering with the waves, rose and fell this monster and nearer and nearer it came to us, until it was almost on top of us and I could see the water filling up and rushing out of the holes in the side. Then the monster hulk, that appeared as a drifted wreck ship, seemed up on the beach, still rising and falling, the water filling it up and rushing out of it again.  I wondered why they didn't pump all the water out and again the other man said, "THEY CAN'T DO IT - THEY CAN'T PUMP THE WATER OUT OF THAT!"  Then I ran up this monster, still rising and falling, filling and emptying with water, and I noticed the old wooden step affair of the body and thought how the water would act to deteriorate and disintegrate those wooden steps and how they would return to another form of matter and then in last analysis were the atom, which is but the phenomenon of a spiritual force.  Then I entered the stage part of a theatre and looked back to find [137], [140] and my usual companions.  I looked at the audience.  I went back and joined my crowd.  "What will we do to-night?" they asked.  "Play 21 or gamble," they said.  I looked back at the theatre. Something felt wrong.

(A) In this representation of the action of subconscious force on mental proclivities of body-mind, with the spiritual elements and truths as are being studied by the individual, are brought through the vision, the lessons, as has been given, of the oneness of all force, and the recognition of same by the individual mind, yet the inability of some others, with whom the entity contacts, to at first gain such conception of truths as are presented from time to time.  In the boat, as a wreck, we find there presented the truth in religious thought as is adrift, and bearing down upon others in no uncertain manner, recognized by others as might be made whole by action from within, yet this seems inaccessible to many.  The resting on shore representing the position to which same has come.  The going on same, with the taking of cognizance of conditions as were apparent on same, the entity's entering into that ability to be of assistance and aid to such conditions at the present time, with the knowledge of the necessity of the stepping stones to the new thought must be made safe and secure for all.  The seeing in the theatre representing the manner in which some would view such conditions, by the action of the individual, yet the knowledge of each, or of some of group, that something must be attempted and done, the recognition of conditions unsettled in the minds of many, and the ability of the one to settle same.  More of these will be seen again.  Follow then in that channel and way in which has been shown that these are presentations of thought and lesson from which the body must gain that knowledge to which it will gradually build to that position in which he must present the lessons and the truths that are to be given to the peoples.

12/28/14 Update:  In 2014 nineteen articles were published at this blog that considered aspects of the JZ Knight/Ramtha case, including "Ramtha: An Introduction to Unlimitedness" and "Guidelines for Spiritual Healing".  During a 2014 interview, Ramtha mentioned soon after beginning the conversation with radio talk show host Rob Simone, ". . . we in the end have to live with our thoughts and our nightmares — and put on a mask the following day and be a jolly entity.  And no one would deeply suspect how deep the scars of insecurity truly lie."  Ramtha was discussing the movie "What the Bleep Do We Know" and observed: " . . . its cult supremacy opened the door for so many documentaries to be made and telly shows to be made without the commentation of detractors . . . and that was a great breakthrough in mind control."  Ramtha also commented: "All of the scientists loved that woman who spoke in the beginning.  Until they were notified I was a channel to being and then they threw it away.  My my."  Ramtha laughed.


20 December 2014

Deflation links

Commenter Zack sent the following Paul Krugman links and quotes, which deserve promotion from the comments section.

"But deflation is a huge risk — and getting out of a deflationary trap is very, very hard. We truly are flirting with disaster."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/about-that-deflation-risk/

"So we're really heading into Japanese-style deflation territory"
 http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/smells-like-deflation/

 "So tell me why we aren’t looking at a very large risk of getting into a deflationary trap, in which falling prices make consumers and businesses even less willing to spend." http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/risks-of-deflation-wonkish-but-important/

 "But the risk that America will turn into Japan — that we’ll face years of deflation and stagnation — seems, if anything, to be rising."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/opinion/04krugman.html

"What I take from this is that deflation isn’t some distant possibility — it’s already here by some measures, not far off by others."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/trending-toward-deflation/

"Worst of all is the possibility that the economy will, as it did in the ’30s, end up stuck in a prolonged deflationary trap."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/opinion/06krugman.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&_r=0

As we know, it didn't turn out that way. We have had positive inflation for 6 years.

Why does this matter? Normally, it doesn't and it shouldn't.

To repeat points made earlier, economics should be science, not witchraft. We do not say "the witch doctor said it would rain, and it did!," and follow him for a while. At a minimum, we measure a forecaster's ability by collecting all his or her forecasts, not just the good ones -- or the bad ones. More deeply, personal prognostication is a nearly useless test of economic models. Prognostication mixes judgement, opinion, forecasts of what politicians will do and what shocks will hit the economy, along with economic  models, in ways that tell you little about the models. If a climate scientist tells you he thinks it will rain this weekend and it's sunny instead, we do not say "well, climate science is bunk." You can only "test" a model once it is written down in a way that anyone operating the model can agree what its prediction is.  Finally, there are a lot of other shocks hitting the economy; a forecaster that was right 60% of the time would be a genius in this business, so one blown forecast is meaningless. If anyone else had written these, they could reasonable respond "it's still a danger, we only avoided it by the Fed's QE and huge deficits."

But I don't write endless posts excoriating "inflationistas" for the lack of their largely mischaracterized inflation forecasts, crowing about how I'm always right about everything,  damning others for failing to learn from evidence, and Bulverizing (look it up, here too, a great word) about their evil motives. So a few look-in-the-mirror-why-don't-you quotes are appropriate.  I've been too lazy to look up these quotes, so I thank Zack for doing it.

This also will matter Monday -- I have a piece coming out that mentions the failure of the widespread "deflationary spiral" forecast. These quotes offer a nice documentation.

By the way, yes, at the time I warned of the risk of inflation, and that didn't happen either. I was quite clear it was a risk not a forecast. California has a risk of earthquakes. And the failure to see one in six years does not prove geologists are all mendacious morons. There are precedents for the inflation risk. Reinhart and Rogoff pointed to quite a few cases in which after a "quiet period," banking crises are followed by sovereign debt crises or defaults.

As I see it, that risk remains, though it has declined a lot. The reason it declined is that our government, and the European governments, kept their eyes on long-term budget issues. Our Administration has from the beginning always promised long-term budget repair, despite Keynesian theory that says if you want to stimulate, you keep quiet about future taxes or spending reductions. No point in waking up the Ricardian genie. You might complain the Administration wasn't serious enough, but they were always saying there would be a long term plan, and bond markets evidently bought it. Many in Congress too have had their eyes on long-term budgets, and long-term fiscal solvency depends if anything more on Congress than on this Administration.

The Europeans have gone through several rounds of "austerity," despite Keynesian and especially Krugmanian excoriation. (True, they started with counterproductive high-marginal-tax austerity, but Europe seems quickly to have learned that less spending and structural reform are a better path.) They came darn close. If Italy and Spain had defaulted, we would likely be having a different conversation today.

Doing so, our and Europe's governments persuaded bond markets that the currency and debt are safe -- maybe even too safe - -and avoided, for now, the sovereign debt fate Reinhart and Rogoff warned about.  If I erred in overestimating the inflationary risk, I erred in underestimating the fiscal sobriety of all our governments, and I overestimated the extent to which they believed the Keynesian advice to ignore, default, devalue, or inflate away debt. That's why no earthquake in 6 years hasn't changed all that much my views on the "model," in this case of underlying causes of inflation.

On the "spiral" or "vortex." Perhaps there are a few true-blue Keynesians reading who can help me out. I understand the idea that deflation leads to high real rates leads to lower demand leads to lower output leads to more deflation. ("Understand" ≠ "Agree".) I don't see how the model ever predicts this to end. Is there some clear "and it bottoms out when x y z?" In my model, it bottoms out when you hit the top of the present value Laffer curve, and future taxes cannot hope to pay back the deflationary increase in the real value of the debt.  But I don't know where it ends in the standard old-Keynesian model. Positive eigenvalues are positive eigenvalues. Maybe some wealth effect of government bonds (Another way to put "my model")? But why doesn't that stop the spiral in the first place? Is it right to characterize the model's prediction as an endless spiral to zero? If not why not?

Update: Commenter JZ sends the following link, and it's only fair to include it.

" ... back when the crisis started, I did expect to see deflation, Japanese style, if it went on for an extended period. I was wrong ... "
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/why-dont-we-have-deflation

17 December 2014

Entwife Circlet, Revisited


Over the past two years, I've had the honor of making jewelry for several weddings. This autumn, a bride asked me to create an Entwife circlet for her. My side of the dorm room started to look like a fairy trove as it became laden with strands of wire, boxes of beads, and pinecones for two weeks. The end result? A woodland fairytale wedding headpiece.


The base of the circlet is braided raw copper, which should develop a beautiful patina over time. I twisted many of my favorite Czech glass leaf beads in various shades of copper onto the copper, accentuating it with some glass pearls.

But that is not all, my friends.


PARTY IN THE BACK!

The back of the Entwife circlet is made from real pinecones, more leaves, and strands of sparkling and rustic chains.

________

Two years ago (has it been that long?) a friend of mine asked me to create an entire jewelry ensemble for her to wear to a Lord of the Rings themed ball. She created an intricate Entwife costume, taught me how to make pinecone flowers, and left me to have fun.

You can see all of the tree-folk jewelry here, and a photoshoot with her costume here.

From this entire Entwife collection, the piece that I was the most proud of was the circlet. My fingers were so tired that I didn't want to do any crafting for days afterwards (gasp! --and, also, it's amazing how I've built up some serious finger muscles since), but it was worth it for this large Entish headpiece. 

The original version of the Entwife circlet. The copper is already patina-ed.
You can imagine how excited I was to get a change to re-create it-- with some changes to reflect my growing attention to construction details, quality supplies, and better techniques. Two years can impart a lot of experience!


I would like to officially thank my roommate for being a princess for an afternoon by modeling for me.


This entire crown took over 100 feet of copper wire to create! I spent several hours watching Netflix (Dollhouse, anyone?) and drinking tea while I busily slaved away at braiding and twisting wire. Unfortunately I had underestimated just how long it would take to make this piece, but thankfully even with all of my schoolwork I was able to ship it on time.


Pinecones do not like me.

First, I had to gather them. That is not hard on a college campus; there are several evergreens by the math building, and it was the right time of year for them to be blanketing the ground. The problem? I picked them up between classes, was on the receiving end of several odd stares, and only realized how sticky pinecones can be when I found that my notebook and sketchbook were glued together in my bag.

Then, I had to clean the pinecones. I wouldn't let that sticky mess anywhere near someone's hair. Plus, germs. Pinecones have to be baked to let the sap melt off-- that was an ordeal in a dorm.

Finally, I had to glue it all together and seal it. That part wasn't too bad at all, but it is when I am doing projects like this that I am eternally grateful for my roommates who deal with my weird projects.



When Spring unfolds the beechen leaf, and sap is in the bough;
When light is on the wild-wood stream, and wind is on the brow;
When stride is long, and breath is deep, and keen the mountain-air,
Come back to me! Come back to me, and say my land is fair!

-an Ent, in the song of the Ents and Entwives in The Two Towers by J.R.R. Tolkien

 

In the Lord of the Rings universe, the Ents are the tree people who the Hobbits run into in Fangorn Forest. The Ents are tree-shepherds, and the fate of the garden-loving Entwives is one of the mysteries of Middle Earth.

 

When Winter comes, and singing ends; when darkness falls at last;
When broken is the barren bough, and light and labour past;
I'll look for thee, and wait for thee, until we meet again:
Together we will take the road beneath the bitter rain!

-an Entwife, in the song of the Ents and Entwives in The Two Towers by J.R.R. Tolkien






I hope that you've enjoyed these pictures! Making the circlet, taking the pictures-- it's all so much fun. :)

16 December 2014

Loggerheads

Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound is a very nice and interesting paper by Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Josh Rudolph, and Larry Summers.

Figure 1. Comparing Quantitative Easing and Treasury Maturity Extension, 2007–2014 ...the cumulative change in 10-year equivalents (scaled as a percentage of GDP) associated with the respective balance sheet policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Positive values increase the interest rate risk placed in public hands (Treasury policies), while negative values decrease it (typically Fed QE, but also Treasury maturity shortening in 2008–2009).

First point, what the Fed taketh away, the Treasury giveth. (Hence the title of this post). The Fed bought lots of long-term debt, with the idea that this would raise the price, lower the interest rate on the long-term debt, and thus stimulate the economy.

At the same time, however, the Treasury was selling lots of long-term debt. Interest rates are very low, and debts are high, so it's a great time to lock in low-rate financing. Homeowners and businesses are doing the same thing.


Alas, the Treasury and Fed are part of one budget constraint, so you can't have it both ways. As it turns out, the Treasury sold even more than the Fed bought, so by their calculations, during the period of QE, the private sector absorbed more long-term government debt!
...despite successive rounds of QE, the stock of government debt with a maturity over 5 years that is held by the public (excluding the Fed’s holdings) has risen from 8 percent of GDP at the end of 2007 to 15 percent at the middle of 2014. Said differently, the volume of 10-year duration equivalent debt has doubled from 13 percent of GDP to 26 percent of GDP over the same interval. Pressure to absorb long-term government debt has actually increased rather than decreased over the last six years!

The closing section, and main point, I think, is a proposal for how  Fed and Treasury should divide responsibility to avoid such loggerheads.

QE

Obviously, if the public has been holding more, not less, long term debt overall, that calls in to question if or how QE "worked.''

If  QE works, does it work down some price-pressure, portfolio-balance, segmented-market, demand-for-maturity curves? Or does it work by signaling Fed intentions about interest rates, and not at all per se? The fact that Treasury also changes maturity structure in private hands can let us sort out the two stories
But if the direct supply effects of QE have been offset by the massive expansion in outstanding government debt and the Treasury’s decision to extend the debt maturity, then what explains the large market impact of QE announcements documented in so many studies, as well as the fact that estimates of term premia on long-term bonds have been steadily driven into negative territory and remain miniscule today, as shown in Figure 3? The most natural explanation is that the Fed’s announcements about its intended asset purchases also conveyed information about its future policies, including both the likely path of future short-term rates and the Fed’s willingness to undertake further asset purchases in response to evolving economic conditions...

... there are reasons to think that announcements of Fed asset purchases may have a greater impact on term premia than comparably sized Treasury supply announcements. Consistent with this, Rudolph (2014) provides event-study evidence suggesting that Fed announcements have about twice the impact as Treasury announcements of a similar size...
I might add that event studies around announcements of future purchases tell us what the market thinks the effect of those purchases will be. Rational expectations is not a solid guide to events outside of all historical experience.

I've long wondered, if the Fed wanted to move long term rates, why did it not just do it -- buy and sell as required to nail the long term bond rate to 2%, say? It turns out this has a precedent:

A few months after the U.S. entered World War II, and in the midst of a rapid increase in government spending, the Fed and the Treasury agreed to fix the entire yield curve of Treasury securities. Three-month bill yields were limited to 0.375% and bond yields were held at 2.5%. The Fed stood ready to buy or sell any amount of treasury securities necessary to maintain this positively sloped yield curve
Optimal maturity structure: Liquidity premium vs. insurance against rate rises 

They argue for a much shorter maturity structure overall, trading the liquidity and low interest rate benefits of issuing short term debt against the insurance against interest rate rises benefits of issuing longer debt.
the main messages we take from these counterfactual exercises are (1) that the additional budgetary volatility incurred by shifting the government debt into short-term securities is less than is commonly supposed, and (2) that doing this would have allowed the government to capture liquidity premia on an ongoing basis

Here's the simulation. They compare surplus/deficit and total debt under existing debt and what would have happened if the Treasury issued only 3 month bills.

Figure 8 Debt and Deficits under Counterfactual Debt Management Plans. The counterfactual exercise measures the path of deficits and debt supposing that the U.S. Treasury had financed itself using rolling 3-month Treasury bills starting in 1952. ....
You can see with 3 month bills that interest-induced changes in deficits come sooner. But there isn't a big difference. From this they conclude that the interest-rate-insurance that comes from long term debt isn't a big deal.

I've been worrying about the interest-costs that a rise in interest rates would imply for some time now,  and advocating longer maturity structures on that basis. (For example in an earlier blog post  here and a longer paper here and most recently in "monetary policy with interest on reserves" ). So what's the difference? I'd make a two little complaints
  1. The  US maturity structure is quite short. Last time I put together the numbers, the US rolls over half our debt every two years. And historically, it's been much shorter. So shortening down to three months doesn't change things a lot. How would lengthening to perpetuities work here?
  2. The danger is a large debt to GDP ratio and the risk of a rate rise. Now we have $18 trillion of debt, so interest rates rising to 4% means $760 billion more deficits.  The graphs show two important data points really. At the end of WWII we had big debt/DGP. And interest rates stayed low until the 1970s. At the end of the 1980s, we had a big rise in real rates. And a low debt/GDP ratio.  So, Russian roulette, the gun clicked twice, doesn't mean we're safe. This isn't about averages, it's about risk management. 
Still, it's a challenging calculation, and to answer it properly requires a simulation of possible interest rate paths and debt stocks. 

They opine on real vs. nominal debt, too, arguing for more nominal debt, and much else. The whole thing is a good read.

14 December 2014

The Harbinger, a Christmas Party and the Healers

Ambrose and Olga Worrall

 
This article features excerpts from The Gift of Healing: A Personal Story of Spiritual Therapy (1965) by Ambrose and Olga Worrall.  The book was also published with the title The Miracle Healers.  There are incidents chronicled in the book that reveal that Matthew Manning isn't the only spiritual healer who experienced phenomena associated with what is usually referred to as a 'poltergeist,' as mentioned in a previous blog article.
 
She was twenty-one years old.  She had finished her education and was working as a private secretary in a business office in Cleveland.  In addition she carried on an extremely active social life.  Vivacious and pretty, she liked parties and laughter, music and dancing.  At the same time she was active in the Russian Orthodox Church in which she had been brought up, and played her part in the smooth operations of the large house where she lived with her parents and her innumerable brothers and sisters.  For Olga Nathalie Ripich, born November 30, 1906, the combination of work and family life and the rush of social activities provided an exuberant pattern of life in that December of 1927.

 
One night in the second week of that December, after she had retired to her bedroom and turned out the light, laying awake in the darkness, she began to hear knocking on the wall, in the dresser, and then in the cedar chest.  The knocking started rather slowly and quietly.  Gradually it grew louder and faster.  Within a few minutes it had become so loud that it could be heard throughout the house.

The first night these noises were heard, the knocking lasted perhaps five to ten minutes—long enough to rouse the household.  Olga's mother thought it must be Olga herself making the noise, and she came into the bedroom and demanded to know why Olga was making all this racket.  "You're waking everybody up," she stated.

"I'm not making these noises, mother," Olga said.  "I don't know who or what is making them."

The noises continued.

A few seconds later the noises stopped abruptly.  The family went back to sleep.  The next night, however, they started again.

 
It would go on for about ten minutes each night in Olga's room.  The entire family heard it.

Mrs. Ripich finally told her daughter, "We've got to do something to stop this; it is driving us all insane.  We are sleepless in the house.  There is a woman from the old country who knows of these things. I am going to talk with her, Olga."

Olga, with all the impatience and self-assurance of youth, told her mother, "Mother, I don't believe in old ladies from the old country.  It's all a lot of superstition."

"But the noises aren't superstition," her mother pointed out as she made the sign of the cross.

And the noises went on.

 
The woman Olga's mother intended to visit for help was one of those with a wealth of knowledge of old wives' tales.  They know old spells and rituals and conjure up old sayings and beliefs to explain such things as these knockings in the night.  (Although Olga had many psychic experiences in her youth, nothing like these rappings that came in the night, always after all the lights were extinguished, had ever occurred to her before.)

About a week after the noisy intrusions began, Olga's mother went to the woman and told her the story.  The woman at once decided that Olga was bewitched and that the spell had to be broken. 

 
Olga's mother returned and told her what the old woman had said Olga must do.  Olga refused.  She said it was crazy and she wasn't bewitched and she refused to go through these rituals.  That night, however, the knocking grew louder and more disturbing to the entire household.

 
"All right, now I've done it," she told her mother dutifully.  And then added, "And we'll see if anything happens.  Anyway, these noises seem friendly to me, as though they were trying to tell me that something wonderful is going to happen to me."

What occurred was that the noises and banging became worse that night than at any previous time.

 
It was about a week later that my role in this began when a young man who happened to be president of a college club to which Olga belonged invited me to accompany him to a Christmas party that was to be given in a private home.  Members of the club took turns giving parties in their home, he explained.  This Christmas party happened to be given in the home of Olga Ripich.  So I went with this young man to Olga's Christmas party.

That was how we met.  And from the very first moment I found myself caught by Olga's fair-haired beauty.  Something else had happened also that startled me, although I did not speak of it to her at that time.  I had the feeling, almost the certainty, that I had seen her or met her before, that we had known each other on a totally different level of existence.

It was as if we were not strangers.

I have already noted elsewhere that psychic gifts often do not work at all in the merely mundane matters of life.  Apparently romance is in this category. In any case, neither Olga nor I had any extrasensory perception that the other party had interest in psychic matters of any sort.

Certain factors did work for us.  At the party, for example, everyone gave and received a gift, chosen by chance.  Mine was from Olga.  And after I had left the party I discovered I had forgotten the gift on the piano.  This gave Olga the opportunity to write a note, asking me to drop by and pick it up.  Even before I received the letter, however, I had written one of my own—in verse, as it happened; I had discovered that Olga's original invitation was in verse.

All this note-writing, gift-giving and gift-leaving and picking up, served to bring us together.  Within a few days we were going out on our first date.

 
Within two weeks I knew that I was in love with Olga.  I was worried about this other aspect of my life—the psychic aspect—and how I should best explain it to her.  I did begin to drop an occasional word or sentence to indicate some interest in that field; these were hints, testing words.  I was somewhat surprised, in fact, that she seemed to understand so much of what I was trying to tell her. Neither of us, however, made any open commitment, each was afraid of driving away the other.

Within a very few weeks I knew that I wanted to marry Olga and I told her so.  By that time I think we were both sure in our hearts.  Long after we were married, Olga told me, "The night you asked me to marry you—I felt as if I had come home."

The Christmas party at which we met took place on December 27.  I proposed to Olga on February 4.

Once she had accepted, I realized that I had to tell her fully and openly about the psychic side of my life.  In as simple, realistic a way as I could, I told her of the various events that I had experienced.

At that moment, as I related those things, I felt I was putting my future on the line.

To my amazement Olga showed no signs of shock or disbelief but listened intently, warmly, and finally said, "Ambrose, I too have these experiences.  I too see people from the other world.  And I also have been used in healing."

It was a strange turn for both of us.  In dealing with others, both Olga and I could often cross the bridge of time into the past, even into the future.  Yet we had no glimmering of the truth about ourselves.

None of it mattered, of course, the world was ahead of us, the world to conquer; we were young, in love, concerned with ourselves and our future.

I had to explain to her that our company, the Glenn L. Martin Company, was opening a large new plant near Baltimore, and I was assigned to help open the plant and to remain there in Baltimore.  So we would be moving within a few months after we were married.  To Olga this meant uprooting her whole life, tearing herself from her family and her home.

There was so much she did not know about me or the world of England that I had come from, just as I knew so little about her life and her world.

It was long after we were married before Olga told me the story of the knockings of the bedroom wall and in the furniture.

When she did tell me, I said to her, "Olga, that was going on just about the time you and I met, just before Christmas.  Why didn't you speak of it to me after you realized my own interest in these things?"
 
 
"But the knockings stopped, Ambrose," Olga explained with infinite patience.  "They stopped and haven't been heard again.  Not since the night you and I met—the night of that party in my home."
 

The Worralls' Principles of Spiritual Healing


The Worralls identified five basic principles of spiritual healing.  This article presents excerpts from The Gift of Healing: A Personal Story of Spiritual Therapy (1965) by Ambrose and Olga Worrall.  The book was also published with the title The Miracle Healers.

When I was younger, I would see a small ball of light about the size of a pea.  It was like the dancing ball in the old-fashioned "movie sing."  This dancing light would go directly to the place where my hands should be placed. Olga saw this light many times when she was in the room with me while I worked with a patient.  In recent years I do not see this light.


. . . once we have relaxed and opened the spiritual channels to a point of receptivity the forces themselves act upon us in various ways not within our command.


There are five basic principles . . .


Actually, many physicians, knowingly or not, have utilized one or more of these principles in addition to their regular medical therapy.

The first is that spiritual healing is not in opposition to medicine.  It works with medicine, with the physician.  To pray for healing is not to practice medical arts.  To make an individual aware that he has Divine love and infinite healing power available to him does not relieve the individual from the necessity of observing physical and medical laws as well as spiritual; they are different aspects of the same thing.


The second basic principle is that the spiritual therapist has no power of his own.  Even with those who are extremely gifted, the gift is not a gift of power itself but of the ability to be used by the power, to direct, to channel the power to others.


The third basic principle is that we can and we must learn the art of allowing this power to work through us.  This is therapeutic technique, but it is not a technique of res medica.  It is a learning to make contact with a force, to be receptive to the forces around us, to the impression that comes, to the inspiration, to the knowing.

Fourth, we must care.  We must care for others deeply and urgently, wholly and immediately; our minds, our spirits, must reach out to them with whatever we have to bring them in the form of help and succor, without desire on our part for personal gain or private glory.

A fifth principle in spiritual therapy is the importance of the attitude of the individual who seeks healing.  The person who is openly hostile certainly makes it extremely difficult for the spiritual therapist to achieve.  Whatever force field can be established is bound to be made ineffective by this kind of overt antagonism.

Honest skepticism is different from hostility.  A man may say, as one did to me, "I don't believe in any of this myself. But if it can help my wife, then I am for it, then I am ready to believe it."

In that instance the doctors had given up all hope for the wife, and the fact that she was cured completely won the man over to belief in spiritual therapy as an actual fact.

A previous blog article mentioning the Worralls is "Spiritual Healing".

09 December 2014

On My Workdesk Wednesday #5

This is WOYWW #287 (and the fifth time I've participated) and if you want to see the workdesks of other artists and crafters, check out the linky here!

Well, my friends, this semester has been a doozy. When I wasn't in class for 27 hours (per week), I was working on hours upon hours of homework, working on custom orders for my Shoppe, going to bible study or other meetings, and somewhere in there trying to fit in as much of a social life as I could. Oh, yes, and eating, sleeping, and exercising. Priorities.

Needless to say, I don't plan on taking an overload semester again anytime soon. Next semester will only be 15 credit hours. Right now it is finals week, I am delaying on studying for calculus, and I really just want to be home enjoying Christmas break and getting the time and freedom to make some fun art.

For today's "What's On Your Workbench," I am going to share some pictures from the past several weeks!

So, this is a slightly random sampling of what my workspaces have looked like this semester.



Probably one of the most interesting things I had on my desk was the pinecone collection that I scavenged from the trees around campus...



This was when I was watching Anastasia while cutting up the pinecones and gluing them onto copper.


And THIS is why my roommate and suitemates are fantastic people. Well-- one of many reasons. They don't kill me when I take over our table with my wire and beads (and pinecones)!

All three of these pictures are from one project for my Shoppe-- a custom bridal "Entwife Woodland Circlet" inspired by the circlet I made a couple of years ago. I will be blogging about this piece sometime soon. Here's a couple of pictures of the finished circlet:



Another incongruous sight for a dorm desk:


(Well, I would imagine that the face of John Green isn't too incongruous. Same with the calculator and tea. However I think that the metalwork tools are.)

This was, again, for my Shoppe. I was stamping quotes on sheet metal, which I then sawed out (yes I was careful with the dorm furniture, mom, I am not five years old! lol!). Our priest at our campus ministry let me work with my chemicals in the church's backyard. I was using Liver of Sulfur to darken the letters and then a resin spray to seal it.



Here's some of what came from this batch of metal:



This is a picture from the classroom of my favorite class of the semester: Color Theory. A very sweet, classy, excited Polish lady taught the class. I found good friends among my classmates and am very sad that it is officially over (I had my final on Monday).


It's so much fun to be an art student, lugging up a summer's worth of money in paints and supplies up flights of stairs every day. Oh so much fun. But (very nonsarcastically) completely worth it for this class.

I'm not sure what project I was working on in this picture below, but I think I was braiding wire for circlets.


This is the only in-progress shot I can find of the bridal party jewelry I made for an autumn wedding.



These are more workdesk shots from my color theory class:




And THIS lovely shot is not of my dorm desk, or a workspace in one of my classrooms. It is the kitchen table at home, from the one day during Fall Break when I worked on homework for eleven hours and drank an entire kettle of peppermint tea:

(Picture from my Instagram)

The following three pictures are from my dorm desk when I was working on more projects for Color Theory. I didn't take many pictures of my design classes-- mostly because I did not enjoy them very much. Don't get me wrong, I love the subject matter and still plan on majoring in Graphic Design-- but it is amazing how much mediocre teachers and projects can try your patience.






This project pictured below is, weirdly enough, from a design class! We had to create a piece of art based on a list of mashups our GA gave us. My piece is a mashup of M.C. Escher ("Print Gallery") and Frank Lloyd Wright ("Fallingwater").


We were given the assignment on the Monday before finals week and it was due by our Saturday final. I got so into it that I actually finished three days early. What is this.



And what is on my workdesk THIS week?


A mess.

To be fair, I am both packing and studying.


Anyway, there you go, my friends! Please believe me when I say that this whirlwind is just a very small snapshot of all the craziness that has been going on in my life this last semester. :)

I'm off to study for my last three finals, but as soon as I am ready for a study break, I'm going to check out the workspaces of everyone else involved in "What's On Your Workdesk Wednesday"! So should you, if you can. There are some creative people participating in WOYWW.

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