Deflation links

Commenter Zack sent the following Paul Krugman links and quotes, which deserve promotion from the comments section.

"But deflation is a huge risk — and getting out of a deflationary trap is very, very hard. We truly are flirting with disaster."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/about-that-deflation-risk/

"So we're really heading into Japanese-style deflation territory"
 http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/smells-like-deflation/

 "So tell me why we aren’t looking at a very large risk of getting into a deflationary trap, in which falling prices make consumers and businesses even less willing to spend." http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/risks-of-deflation-wonkish-but-important/

 "But the risk that America will turn into Japan — that we’ll face years of deflation and stagnation — seems, if anything, to be rising."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/opinion/04krugman.html

"What I take from this is that deflation isn’t some distant possibility — it’s already here by some measures, not far off by others."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/trending-toward-deflation/

"Worst of all is the possibility that the economy will, as it did in the ’30s, end up stuck in a prolonged deflationary trap."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/opinion/06krugman.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&_r=0

As we know, it didn't turn out that way. We have had positive inflation for 6 years.

Why does this matter? Normally, it doesn't and it shouldn't.

To repeat points made earlier, economics should be science, not witchraft. We do not say "the witch doctor said it would rain, and it did!," and follow him for a while. At a minimum, we measure a forecaster's ability by collecting all his or her forecasts, not just the good ones -- or the bad ones. More deeply, personal prognostication is a nearly useless test of economic models. Prognostication mixes judgement, opinion, forecasts of what politicians will do and what shocks will hit the economy, along with economic  models, in ways that tell you little about the models. If a climate scientist tells you he thinks it will rain this weekend and it's sunny instead, we do not say "well, climate science is bunk." You can only "test" a model once it is written down in a way that anyone operating the model can agree what its prediction is.  Finally, there are a lot of other shocks hitting the economy; a forecaster that was right 60% of the time would be a genius in this business, so one blown forecast is meaningless. If anyone else had written these, they could reasonable respond "it's still a danger, we only avoided it by the Fed's QE and huge deficits."

But I don't write endless posts excoriating "inflationistas" for the lack of their largely mischaracterized inflation forecasts, crowing about how I'm always right about everything,  damning others for failing to learn from evidence, and Bulverizing (look it up, here too, a great word) about their evil motives. So a few look-in-the-mirror-why-don't-you quotes are appropriate.  I've been too lazy to look up these quotes, so I thank Zack for doing it.

This also will matter Monday -- I have a piece coming out that mentions the failure of the widespread "deflationary spiral" forecast. These quotes offer a nice documentation.

By the way, yes, at the time I warned of the risk of inflation, and that didn't happen either. I was quite clear it was a risk not a forecast. California has a risk of earthquakes. And the failure to see one in six years does not prove geologists are all mendacious morons. There are precedents for the inflation risk. Reinhart and Rogoff pointed to quite a few cases in which after a "quiet period," banking crises are followed by sovereign debt crises or defaults.

As I see it, that risk remains, though it has declined a lot. The reason it declined is that our government, and the European governments, kept their eyes on long-term budget issues. Our Administration has from the beginning always promised long-term budget repair, despite Keynesian theory that says if you want to stimulate, you keep quiet about future taxes or spending reductions. No point in waking up the Ricardian genie. You might complain the Administration wasn't serious enough, but they were always saying there would be a long term plan, and bond markets evidently bought it. Many in Congress too have had their eyes on long-term budgets, and long-term fiscal solvency depends if anything more on Congress than on this Administration.

The Europeans have gone through several rounds of "austerity," despite Keynesian and especially Krugmanian excoriation. (True, they started with counterproductive high-marginal-tax austerity, but Europe seems quickly to have learned that less spending and structural reform are a better path.) They came darn close. If Italy and Spain had defaulted, we would likely be having a different conversation today.

Doing so, our and Europe's governments persuaded bond markets that the currency and debt are safe -- maybe even too safe - -and avoided, for now, the sovereign debt fate Reinhart and Rogoff warned about.  If I erred in overestimating the inflationary risk, I erred in underestimating the fiscal sobriety of all our governments, and I overestimated the extent to which they believed the Keynesian advice to ignore, default, devalue, or inflate away debt. That's why no earthquake in 6 years hasn't changed all that much my views on the "model," in this case of underlying causes of inflation.

On the "spiral" or "vortex." Perhaps there are a few true-blue Keynesians reading who can help me out. I understand the idea that deflation leads to high real rates leads to lower demand leads to lower output leads to more deflation. ("Understand" ≠ "Agree".) I don't see how the model ever predicts this to end. Is there some clear "and it bottoms out when x y z?" In my model, it bottoms out when you hit the top of the present value Laffer curve, and future taxes cannot hope to pay back the deflationary increase in the real value of the debt.  But I don't know where it ends in the standard old-Keynesian model. Positive eigenvalues are positive eigenvalues. Maybe some wealth effect of government bonds (Another way to put "my model")? But why doesn't that stop the spiral in the first place? Is it right to characterize the model's prediction as an endless spiral to zero? If not why not?

Update: Commenter JZ sends the following link, and it's only fair to include it.

" ... back when the crisis started, I did expect to see deflation, Japanese style, if it went on for an extended period. I was wrong ... "
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/why-dont-we-have-deflation

Entwife Circlet, Revisited

Over the past two years, I've had the honor of making jewelry for several weddings. This autumn, a bride asked me to create an Entwife circlet for her. My side of the dorm room started to look like a fairy trove as it became laden with strands of wire, boxes of beads, and pinecones for two weeks. The end result? A woodland fairytale wedding headpiece.

The base of the circlet is braided raw copper, which should develop a beautiful patina over time. I twisted many of my favorite Czech glass leaf beads in various shades of copper onto the copper, accentuating it with some glass pearls.

But that is not all, my friends.

PARTY IN THE BACK!

The back of the Entwife circlet is made from real pinecones, more leaves, and strands of sparkling and rustic chains.

________

Two years ago (has it been that long?) a friend of mine asked me to create an entire jewelry ensemble for her to wear to a Lord of the Rings themed ball. She created an intricate Entwife costume, taught me how to make pinecone flowers, and left me to have fun.

You can see all of the tree-folk jewelry here, and a photoshoot with her costume here.

From this entire Entwife collection, the piece that I was the most proud of was the circlet. My fingers were so tired that I didn't want to do any crafting for days afterwards (gasp! --and, also, it's amazing how I've built up some serious finger muscles since), but it was worth it for this large Entish headpiece. 

The original version of the Entwife circlet. The copper is already patina-ed.

You can imagine how excited I was to get a change to re-create it-- with some changes to reflect my growing attention to construction details, quality supplies, and better techniques. Two years can impart a lot of experience!

I would like to officially thank my roommate for being a princess for an afternoon by modeling for me.

This entire crown took over 100 feet of copper wire to create! I spent several hours watching Netflix (Dollhouse, anyone?) and drinking tea while I busily slaved away at braiding and twisting wire. Unfortunately I had underestimated just how long it would take to make this piece, but thankfully even with all of my schoolwork I was able to ship it on time.

Pinecones do not like me.

First, I had to gather them. That is not hard on a college campus; there are several evergreens by the math building, and it was the right time of year for them to be blanketing the ground. The problem? I picked them up between classes, was on the receiving end of several odd stares, and only realized how sticky pinecones can be when I found that my notebook and sketchbook were glued together in my bag.

Then, I had to clean the pinecones. I wouldn't let that sticky mess anywhere near someone's hair. Plus, germs. Pinecones have to be baked to let the sap melt off-- that was an ordeal in a dorm.

Finally, I had to glue it all together and seal it. That part wasn't too bad at all, but it is when I am doing projects like this that I am eternally grateful for my roommates who deal with my weird projects.

When Spring unfolds the beechen leaf, and sap is in the bough;
When light is on the wild-wood stream, and wind is on the brow;
When stride is long, and breath is deep, and keen the mountain-air,
Come back to me! Come back to me, and say my land is fair!

-an Ent, in the song of the Ents and Entwives in The Two Towers by J.R.R. Tolkien

 

In the Lord of the Rings universe, the Ents are the tree people who the Hobbits run into in Fangorn Forest. The Ents are tree-shepherds, and the fate of the garden-loving Entwives is one of the mysteries of Middle Earth.

 

When Winter comes, and singing ends; when darkness falls at last;
When broken is the barren bough, and light and labour past;
I'll look for thee, and wait for thee, until we meet again:
Together we will take the road beneath the bitter rain!

-an Entwife, in the song of the Ents and Entwives in The Two Towers by J.R.R. Tolkien

I hope that you've enjoyed these pictures! Making the circlet, taking the pictures-- it's all so much fun. :)

Loggerheads

Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound is a very nice and interesting paper by Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Josh Rudolph, and Larry Summers.

Figure 1. Comparing Quantitative Easing and Treasury Maturity Extension, 2007–2014 ...the cumulative change in 10-year equivalents (scaled as a percentage of GDP) associated with the respective balance sheet policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Positive values increase the interest rate risk placed in public hands (Treasury policies), while negative values decrease it (typically Fed QE, but also Treasury maturity shortening in 2008–2009).

First point, what the Fed taketh away, the Treasury giveth. (Hence the title of this post). The Fed bought lots of long-term debt, with the idea that this would raise the price, lower the interest rate on the long-term debt, and thus stimulate the economy.

At the same time, however, the Treasury was selling lots of long-term debt. Interest rates are very low, and debts are high, so it's a great time to lock in low-rate financing. Homeowners and businesses are doing the same thing.


Alas, the Treasury and Fed are part of one budget constraint, so you can't have it both ways. As it turns out, the Treasury sold even more than the Fed bought, so by their calculations, during the period of QE, the private sector absorbed more long-term government debt!

...despite successive rounds of QE, the stock of government debt with a maturity over 5 years that is held by the public (excluding the Fed’s holdings) has risen from 8 percent of GDP at the end of 2007 to 15 percent at the middle of 2014. Said differently, the volume of 10-year duration equivalent debt has doubled from 13 percent of GDP to 26 percent of GDP over the same interval. Pressure to absorb long-term government debt has actually increased rather than decreased over the last six years!

The closing section, and main point, I think, is a proposal for how  Fed and Treasury should divide responsibility to avoid such loggerheads.

QE

Obviously, if the public has been holding more, not less, long term debt overall, that calls in to question if or how QE "worked.''

If  QE works, does it work down some price-pressure, portfolio-balance, segmented-market, demand-for-maturity curves? Or does it work by signaling Fed intentions about interest rates, and not at all per se? The fact that Treasury also changes maturity structure in private hands can let us sort out the two stories

But if the direct supply effects of QE have been offset by the massive expansion in outstanding government debt and the Treasury’s decision to extend the debt maturity, then what explains the large market impact of QE announcements documented in so many studies, as well as the fact that estimates of term premia on long-term bonds have been steadily driven into negative territory and remain miniscule today, as shown in Figure 3? The most natural explanation is that the Fed’s announcements about its intended asset purchases also conveyed information about its future policies, including both the likely path of future short-term rates and the Fed’s willingness to undertake further asset purchases in response to evolving economic conditions...

... there are reasons to think that announcements of Fed asset purchases may have a greater impact on term premia than comparably sized Treasury supply announcements. Consistent with this, Rudolph (2014) provides event-study evidence suggesting that Fed announcements have about twice the impact as Treasury announcements of a similar size...

I might add that event studies around announcements of future purchases tell us what the market thinks the effect of those purchases will be. Rational expectations is not a solid guide to events outside of all historical experience.

I've long wondered, if the Fed wanted to move long term rates, why did it not just do it -- buy and sell as required to nail the long term bond rate to 2%, say? It turns out this has a precedent:

A few months after the U.S. entered World War II, and in the midst of a rapid increase in government spending, the Fed and the Treasury agreed to fix the entire yield curve of Treasury securities. Three-month bill yields were limited to 0.375% and bond yields were held at 2.5%. The Fed stood ready to buy or sell any amount of treasury securities necessary to maintain this positively sloped yield curve

Optimal maturity structure: Liquidity premium vs. insurance against rate rises 

They argue for a much shorter maturity structure overall, trading the liquidity and low interest rate benefits of issuing short term debt against the insurance against interest rate rises benefits of issuing longer debt.

the main messages we take from these counterfactual exercises are (1) that the additional budgetary volatility incurred by shifting the government debt into short-term securities is less than is commonly supposed, and (2) that doing this would have allowed the government to capture liquidity premia on an ongoing basis

Here's the simulation. They compare surplus/deficit and total debt under existing debt and what would have happened if the Treasury issued only 3 month bills.

Figure 8 Debt and Deficits under Counterfactual Debt Management Plans. The counterfactual exercise measures the path of deficits and debt supposing that the U.S. Treasury had financed itself using rolling 3-month Treasury bills starting in 1952. ....

You can see with 3 month bills that interest-induced changes in deficits come sooner. But there isn't a big difference. From this they conclude that the interest-rate-insurance that comes from long term debt isn't a big deal.

I've been worrying about the interest-costs that a rise in interest rates would imply for some time now,  and advocating longer maturity structures on that basis. (For example in an earlier blog post  here and a longer paper here and most recently in "monetary policy with interest on reserves" ). So what's the difference? I'd make a two little complaints

1. The  US maturity structure is quite short. Last time I put together the numbers, the US rolls over half our debt every two years. And historically, it's been much shorter. So shortening down to three months doesn't change things a lot. How would lengthening to perpetuities work here?
2. The danger is a large debt to GDP ratio and the risk of a rate rise. Now we have $18 trillion of debt, so interest rates rising to 4% means $760 billion more deficits.  The graphs show two important data points really. At the end of WWII we had big debt/DGP. And interest rates stayed low until the 1970s. At the end of the 1980s, we had a big rise in real rates. And a low debt/GDP ratio.  So, Russian roulette, the gun clicked twice, doesn't mean we're safe. This isn't about averages, it's about risk management. 

Still, it's a challenging calculation, and to answer it properly requires a simulation of possible interest rate paths and debt stocks. 

They opine on real vs. nominal debt, too, arguing for more nominal debt, and much else. The whole thing is a good read.

The Harbinger, a Christmas Party and the Healers

Ambrose and Olga Worrall

 

This article features excerpts from The Gift of Healing: A Personal Story of Spiritual Therapy (1965) by Ambrose and Olga Worrall.  The book was also published with the title The Miracle Healers.  There are incidents chronicled in the book that reveal that Matthew Manning isn't the only spiritual healer who experienced phenomena associated with what is usually referred to as a 'poltergeist,' as mentioned in a previous blog article.

 

She was twenty-one years old.  She had finished her education and was working as a private secretary in a business office in Cleveland.  In addition she carried on an extremely active social life.  Vivacious and pretty, she liked parties and laughter, music and dancing.  At the same time she was active in the Russian Orthodox Church in which she had been brought up, and played her part in the smooth operations of the large house where she lived with her parents and her innumerable brothers and sisters.  For Olga Nathalie Ripich, born November 30, 1906, the combination of work and family life and the rush of social activities provided an exuberant pattern of life in that December of 1927.

 

One night in the second week of that December, after she had retired to her bedroom and turned out the light, laying awake in the darkness, she began to hear knocking on the wall, in the dresser, and then in the cedar chest.  The knocking started rather slowly and quietly.  Gradually it grew louder and faster.  Within a few minutes it had become so loud that it could be heard throughout the house.

The first night these noises were heard, the knocking lasted perhaps five to ten minutes—long enough to rouse the household.  Olga's mother thought it must be Olga herself making the noise, and she came into the bedroom and demanded to know why Olga was making all this racket.  "You're waking everybody up," she stated.

"I'm not making these noises, mother," Olga said.  "I don't know who or what is making them."

The noises continued.

A few seconds later the noises stopped abruptly.  The family went back to sleep.  The next night, however, they started again.

 

It would go on for about ten minutes each night in Olga's room.  The entire family heard it.

Mrs. Ripich finally told her daughter, "We've got to do something to stop this; it is driving us all insane.  We are sleepless in the house.  There is a woman from the old country who knows of these things. I am going to talk with her, Olga."

Olga, with all the impatience and self-assurance of youth, told her mother, "Mother, I don't believe in old ladies from the old country.  It's all a lot of superstition."

"But the noises aren't superstition," her mother pointed out as she made the sign of the cross.

And the noises went on.

 

The woman Olga's mother intended to visit for help was one of those with a wealth of knowledge of old wives' tales.  They know old spells and rituals and conjure up old sayings and beliefs to explain such things as these knockings in the night.  (Although Olga had many psychic experiences in her youth, nothing like these rappings that came in the night, always after all the lights were extinguished, had ever occurred to her before.)

About a week after the noisy intrusions began, Olga's mother went to the woman and told her the story.  The woman at once decided that Olga was bewitched and that the spell had to be broken. 

 

Olga's mother returned and told her what the old woman had said Olga must do.  Olga refused.  She said it was crazy and she wasn't bewitched and she refused to go through these rituals.  That night, however, the knocking grew louder and more disturbing to the entire household.

 

"All right, now I've done it," she told her mother dutifully.  And then added, "And we'll see if anything happens.  Anyway, these noises seem friendly to me, as though they were trying to tell me that something wonderful is going to happen to me."

What occurred was that the noises and banging became worse that night than at any previous time.

 

It was about a week later that my role in this began when a young man who happened to be president of a college club to which Olga belonged invited me to accompany him to a Christmas party that was to be given in a private home.  Members of the club took turns giving parties in their home, he explained.  This Christmas party happened to be given in the home of Olga Ripich.  So I went with this young man to Olga's Christmas party.

That was how we met.  And from the very first moment I found myself caught by Olga's fair-haired beauty.  Something else had happened also that startled me, although I did not speak of it to her at that time.  I had the feeling, almost the certainty, that I had seen her or met her before, that we had known each other on a totally different level of existence.

It was as if we were not strangers.

I have already noted elsewhere that psychic gifts often do not work at all in the merely mundane matters of life.  Apparently romance is in this category. In any case, neither Olga nor I had any extrasensory perception that the other party had interest in psychic matters of any sort.

Certain factors did work for us.  At the party, for example, everyone gave and received a gift, chosen by chance.  Mine was from Olga.  And after I had left the party I discovered I had forgotten the gift on the piano.  This gave Olga the opportunity to write a note, asking me to drop by and pick it up.  Even before I received the letter, however, I had written one of my own—in verse, as it happened; I had discovered that Olga's original invitation was in verse.

All this note-writing, gift-giving and gift-leaving and picking up, served to bring us together.  Within a few days we were going out on our first date.

 

Within two weeks I knew that I was in love with Olga.  I was worried about this other aspect of my life—the psychic aspect—and how I should best explain it to her.  I did begin to drop an occasional word or sentence to indicate some interest in that field; these were hints, testing words.  I was somewhat surprised, in fact, that she seemed to understand so much of what I was trying to tell her. Neither of us, however, made any open commitment, each was afraid of driving away the other.

Within a very few weeks I knew that I wanted to marry Olga and I told her so.  By that time I think we were both sure in our hearts.  Long after we were married, Olga told me, "The night you asked me to marry you—I felt as if I had come home."

The Christmas party at which we met took place on December 27.  I proposed to Olga on February 4.

Once she had accepted, I realized that I had to tell her fully and openly about the psychic side of my life.  In as simple, realistic a way as I could, I told her of the various events that I had experienced.

At that moment, as I related those things, I felt I was putting my future on the line.

To my amazement Olga showed no signs of shock or disbelief but listened intently, warmly, and finally said, "Ambrose, I too have these experiences.  I too see people from the other world.  And I also have been used in healing."

It was a strange turn for both of us.  In dealing with others, both Olga and I could often cross the bridge of time into the past, even into the future.  Yet we had no glimmering of the truth about ourselves.

None of it mattered, of course, the world was ahead of us, the world to conquer; we were young, in love, concerned with ourselves and our future.

I had to explain to her that our company, the Glenn L. Martin Company, was opening a large new plant near Baltimore, and I was assigned to help open the plant and to remain there in Baltimore.  So we would be moving within a few months after we were married.  To Olga this meant uprooting her whole life, tearing herself from her family and her home.

There was so much she did not know about me or the world of England that I had come from, just as I knew so little about her life and her world.

It was long after we were married before Olga told me the story of the knockings of the bedroom wall and in the furniture.

When she did tell me, I said to her, "Olga, that was going on just about the time you and I met, just before Christmas.  Why didn't you speak of it to me after you realized my own interest in these things?"

 

 

"But the knockings stopped, Ambrose," Olga explained with infinite patience.  "They stopped and haven't been heard again.  Not since the night you and I met—the night of that party in my home."

 

The Worralls' Principles of Spiritual Healing

The Worralls identified five basic principles of spiritual healing.  This article presents excerpts from The Gift of Healing: A Personal Story of Spiritual Therapy (1965) by Ambrose and Olga Worrall.  The book was also published with the title The Miracle Healers.

When I was younger, I would see a small ball of light about the size of a pea.  It was like the dancing ball in the old-fashioned "movie sing."  This dancing light would go directly to the place where my hands should be placed. Olga saw this light many times when she was in the room with me while I worked with a patient.  In recent years I do not see this light.

. . . once we have relaxed and opened the spiritual channels to a point of receptivity the forces themselves act upon us in various ways not within our command.

There are five basic principles . . .

Actually, many physicians, knowingly or not, have utilized one or more of these principles in addition to their regular medical therapy.

The first is that spiritual healing is not in opposition to medicine.  It works with medicine, with the physician.  To pray for healing is not to practice medical arts.  To make an individual aware that he has Divine love and infinite healing power available to him does not relieve the individual from the necessity of observing physical and medical laws as well as spiritual; they are different aspects of the same thing.

The second basic principle is that the spiritual therapist has no power of his own.  Even with those who are extremely gifted, the gift is not a gift of power itself but of the ability to be used by the power, to direct, to channel the power to others.

The third basic principle is that we can and we must learn the art of allowing this power to work through us.  This is therapeutic technique, but it is not a technique of res medica.  It is a learning to make contact with a force, to be receptive to the forces around us, to the impression that comes, to the inspiration, to the knowing.

Fourth, we must care.  We must care for others deeply and urgently, wholly and immediately; our minds, our spirits, must reach out to them with whatever we have to bring them in the form of help and succor, without desire on our part for personal gain or private glory.

A fifth principle in spiritual therapy is the importance of the attitude of the individual who seeks healing.  The person who is openly hostile certainly makes it extremely difficult for the spiritual therapist to achieve.  Whatever force field can be established is bound to be made ineffective by this kind of overt antagonism.

Honest skepticism is different from hostility.  A man may say, as one did to me, "I don't believe in any of this myself. But if it can help my wife, then I am for it, then I am ready to believe it."

In that instance the doctors had given up all hope for the wife, and the fact that she was cured completely won the man over to belief in spiritual therapy as an actual fact.

A previous blog article mentioning the Worralls is "Spiritual Healing".

On My Workdesk Wednesday #5

This is WOYWW #287 (and the fifth time I've participated) and if you want to see the workdesks of other artists and crafters, check out the linky here!

Well, my friends, this semester has been a doozy. When I wasn't in class for 27 hours (per week), I was working on hours upon hours of homework, working on custom orders for my Shoppe, going to bible study or other meetings, and somewhere in there trying to fit in as much of a social life as I could. Oh, yes, and eating, sleeping, and exercising. Priorities.

Needless to say, I don't plan on taking an overload semester again anytime soon. Next semester will only be 15 credit hours. Right now it is finals week, I am delaying on studying for calculus, and I really just want to be home enjoying Christmas break and getting the time and freedom to make some fun art.

For today's "What's On Your Workbench," I am going to share some pictures from the past several weeks!

So, this is a slightly random sampling of what my workspaces have looked like this semester.

Probably one of the most interesting things I had on my desk was the pinecone collection that I scavenged from the trees around campus...

This was when I was watching Anastasia while cutting up the pinecones and gluing them onto copper.

And THIS is why my roommate and suitemates are fantastic people. Well-- one of many reasons. They don't kill me when I take over our table with my wire and beads (and pinecones)!

All three of these pictures are from one project for my Shoppe-- a custom bridal "Entwife Woodland Circlet" inspired by the circlet I made a couple of years ago. I will be blogging about this piece sometime soon. Here's a couple of pictures of the finished circlet:

Another incongruous sight for a dorm desk:

(Well, I would imagine that the face of John Green isn't too incongruous. Same with the calculator and tea. However I think that the metalwork tools are.)

This was, again, for my Shoppe. I was stamping quotes on sheet metal, which I then sawed out (yes I was careful with the dorm furniture, mom, I am not five years old! lol!). Our priest at our campus ministry let me work with my chemicals in the church's backyard. I was using Liver of Sulfur to darken the letters and then a resin spray to seal it.

Here's some of what came from this batch of metal:

This is a picture from the classroom of my favorite class of the semester: Color Theory. A very sweet, classy, excited Polish lady taught the class. I found good friends among my classmates and am very sad that it is officially over (I had my final on Monday).

It's so much fun to be an art student, lugging up a summer's worth of money in paints and supplies up flights of stairs every day. Oh so much fun. But (very nonsarcastically) completely worth it for this class.

I'm not sure what project I was working on in this picture below, but I think I was braiding wire for circlets.

This is the only in-progress shot I can find of the bridal party jewelry I made for an autumn wedding.

These are more workdesk shots from my color theory class:

And THIS lovely shot is not of my dorm desk, or a workspace in one of my classrooms. It is the kitchen table at home, from the one day during Fall Break when I worked on homework for eleven hours and drank an entire kettle of peppermint tea:

(Picture from my Instagram)

The following three pictures are from my dorm desk when I was working on more projects for Color Theory. I didn't take many pictures of my design classes-- mostly because I did not enjoy them very much. Don't get me wrong, I love the subject matter and still plan on majoring in Graphic Design-- but it is amazing how much mediocre teachers and projects can try your patience.

This project pictured below is, weirdly enough, from a design class! We had to create a piece of art based on a list of mashups our GA gave us. My piece is a mashup of M.C. Escher ("Print Gallery") and Frank Lloyd Wright ("Fallingwater").

We were given the assignment on the Monday before finals week and it was due by our Saturday final. I got so into it that I actually finished three days early. What is this.

And what is on my workdesk THIS week?

A mess.

To be fair, I am both packing and studying.

Anyway, there you go, my friends! Please believe me when I say that this whirlwind is just a very small snapshot of all the craziness that has been going on in my life this last semester. :)

I'm off to study for my last three finals, but as soon as I am ready for a study break, I'm going to check out the workspaces of everyone else involved in "What's On Your Workdesk Wednesday"! So should you, if you can. There are some creative people participating in WOYWW.

Guidelines for Spiritual Healing



This is the original symbol of the Association for Research and Enlightenment.

 
 
While writing a previous article, I found an article entitled "The Hill of God" offering "Guidelines for Spiritual Healing" with excerpts of Edgar Cayce channeled reading transcripts selected by W. H. Church from among the archived 14,306 transcripts.  The article appeared in the November 1972 issue of The A.R.E. Journal.  Topics in this issue also include psychic research and archaeology, the I Ching, the 'Ipsab' dental remedy, reincarnation, and dream interpretation.  The Association of Research and Enlightenment was formed in 1931 by Edgar Cayce (1877-1945) and supporters of his psychic work. 

 

In the article "Case Profile: Edgar Cayce", I mentioned:

 

. . . the 1872 Flashes of Light from the Spirit-Land, Through the Mediumship of Mrs. J. H. Conant (a collection of transcripts of channeled communication through Conant) included a quotation of "controlling spirit" Theodore Parker, who spoke through the medium in 1869: ". . . In the first place, it should be understood that these séances are not controlled at all times by the same spirit, but for each occasion an intelligence is selected best adapted to that occasion."

Other commentary from the transcript of this April 29, 1869 discourse is included in the article "Trance Channeling in the 19th Century". 

The case profile article about Edgar Cayce shows that a succession of diverse entities were able to be recognized through the communication spoken through him during interims when he was in a hypnotic trance.  Readers of other extensively chronicled cases of transcendental communication will be better prepared to place these circumstances in perspective.  Some of the cases that have been the topics for articles at this blog are chronicled as having involved a succession of manifesting individuals: (for example) the 'Bell Witch' and 'Centrahoma' talking poltergeist cases; the early stage of phenomena observed in the case of Matthew Manning that included automatic writing and drawing; the Direct Voice audio recordings made in the presence of medium Leslie Flint; trance channel healing cases such as that of the contemporary Brazilian healer 'John of God'; the case of Guy and Edna Ballard who supervised the transcription of discourses dictated by numerous 'ascended masters'; the spiritual diaries of John Dee; and the many cases presented in biographical books about clairvoyant and clairaudient mediums and channelers, including Rosemary Brown and Mark Probert.

 

In one recording of Leslie Flint's guide 'Mickey' that includes comments about "Truth" (recordings page link) Mickey can be heard reminding: ". . . various people coming from various spheres can only give you an insight into the knowledge that they have appertaining to their particular advancement or development according to their own condition."

 

This year while writing the series of articles focusing on the case of the channeled entity known as 'Ramtha,' I noticed extensive parallels between this case and the transcripts of the Edgar Cayce channeled readings.  One example is Ramtha's penchant for using the word 'entity.'  When evaluating statements in transcripts of transcendental communication, the date when the information was shared is an important detail to consider.

In the article compiled by W. H. Church about the topic of spiritual healing in the Edgar Cayce channeled reading transcripts, the first passage selected by Church is:
 

Be not weary of trial.  Be not weary in discouraging moments.  But look up, lift up thy voice, thy eyes, unto the hill of God.     281-50

Ramtha's 'most important message' is corroborated in this excerpt from the Edgar Cayce readings:

For thy body is indeed the temple of the living God.     3174-1

One excerpt places in perspective the diversity of potential healing possibilities.

Q-21. Could I become a healer? If so, what method should I use?

A-21. That as seemeth to thee that channel through which an individual, or entity, may get hold of that which is being given out by self.  There are, as seen, many various channels through which healing may come.  That as of the individual contact; that as of the faith; that as of the laying on of hands; that as will create in the mind (for it is the builder in a human being) that consciousness that makes for the closer contact with the Universal, or the Creative Forces, in its experience.  That which is nearest akin to that concept built.  Use that thou hast, then, in hand.     281-6

The principles of Oneness and Christ Consciousness are conveyed in some of the passages, such as:

Q-5. Is it right to try to heal others when one has failed to accomplish healing in one's own life?

A-5. Healing others is healing self.     281-18


Q-18. Should the Christ Consciousness be described as the awareness within each soul, imprinted in pattern on the mind and waiting to be awakened by the will, of the soul's oneness with God?

A-18. Correct.  That's the idea exactly!     5749-14

There are explanations of how techniques of spiritual healing may be effective.

 

. . . any manner in which healing comes - whether by the laying on of hands, prayer, by a look, by the application of any mechanical influence or any of those forces in materia medica - must be of such a nature as to produce that necessary within those forces about the atomic centers of a given body for it to bring resuscitating or healing.     281-24

The strict dogma noticeable in some of the passages (such as "all illness comes from sin" 3174-1) makes comprehensible a rationale for Ramtha's utilization of "verbiage contradiction" and "I will manifest all your fears" philosophizing during recorded discourses.  The testing of a student's discernment conveys awareness of the contradictions that arise from the analysis of diverse perspectives to be found among documented cases of transcendental communication.  One of my conclusions about the JZ Knight/Ramtha case is that the ascended masters and other channeling cases when considered altogether provide evidence of the omnipresent 'universal Christ Spirit'/spiritual 'Oneness'/Superconsciousness.

An excerpt in the Church compilation article makes the statement: ". . . attitudes oft influence the physical conditions of the body" (4021-1); however, commentary about the harmful influence of hate, jealousy and anger in this abbreviated context lacks consideration of the relativity involved in how an individual experiences these emotions and of other reasons for physical maladies. 

Then [regarding] the attitudes of the body: Know that there is within self all healing that may be accomplished for the body.  For, all healing must come from the Divine.  For who healeth thy diseases?  The source of the Universal supply.    

 
. . . the applications are merely to stimulate the atoms of the body.     4021-1


. . . it is necessary to eliminate these [those influences which are called habits, or inclinations, or intents] from the purposes and aims and desires of individuals.     281-44

 

An excerpt concerning the meaning of 'Israel' identifies the word as signifying "the seeker after truth."  The passage continues:

Who may this be?  Those who put and hold trust in the fact that they, as individuals, are children of the universal consciousness or God! . . . the body is transient, the mind is amenable or the builder, the soul is eternal.     5377-1

There are excerpts about the body gradually renewing itself constantly (1548-3) followed by advice for self-purification and supplication to serving others (1089-2).  There is a suggestion that the easiest path that presents itself to an individual may not be expedient for one's spiritual progress (and health) with the correct understanding of the premise of reaching Christ Consciousness: "All must pass under the rod as of that cleansing necessary for the inflowing of the Christ Consciousness . . ." (281-5)

 

The article concludes with channeled reading excerpts instructing about "laws of the physical, of the mental, of the spiritual" influencing the balance kept in the body (3246-2) with the final excerpt reminding about the complexity of one's relationship with 'God.'  This last excerpt consisting of a short phrase in a sentence associating 'God' with law and love is simple yet vague.  The transcript from which the phrase is taken (900-20) begins with a question asking for the continuation from a previous reading of an "explanation of spiritual and soul forces, and what relation this plane has to earth."  The answer on this occasion presented below.  This channeled reading was given by Edgar Cayce in New York City on January 15, 1925. 

 

2. EC: Yes, we have the conditions here, as would be given from this plane.

3.  As the soul and spirit entity taken its form in the spiritual plane, as the physical body takes form in the material plane, [it is] subject in the spiritual plane to those immutable laws of the spiritual plane.  The spiritual entity of the individual composed, then, of the spirit, the superconsciousness, the soul, the subconscious body, as the body prepared for the entity in the spiritual plane, taking then the position in the Universal Force, or space, that the entity has prepared for itself, and goes through its development in that plane, until ready again to manifest in the flesh plane, and sow that degree of development toward that perfection that would make the entity in its entirety perfect, or one with the Creator.  This is the cycle, or development, or condition, of the entity in the earth plane, and in the spiritual plane, whether developed to that position to occupy that it occupies, with its relative conditions left in the environment, and giving, partaking, or assisted by such conditions in its completion of development.  As this we would find the ever giving forces, as long as not given to becoming in that sphere that would bring the entity into the perfect conjunction with the Universal Force, the entity depending, whether in spiritual plane, or physical plane, upon its relation with the sphere to which it is the closer attracted.  Hence we have those conditions as expressed in the earth's plane; those individuals of a spiritual nature, those individuals of the material nature; the nature not changing in its condition, save by the environment of development.